Political races a sure bet? Check Web
Believe it or not, there are political futures markets where wagers are being taken on presidential candidates, just as if they were pork bellies, soybeans, ethanol, precious metals or foreign currencies.
Through a number of Web sites, including one operated by the University of Iowa's business college, traders can place bets on, for example, who'll win the Republican or Democratic nomination next year.
Anyone can follow the several political future markets online, often through detailed graphs that show the ups and downs of each major candidate's value as determined by trading over time.
"It's kind of a fun thing to play with, and of course, it's the people who are political junkies who typically do," said Kirk Jowers, director of the University of Utah's Hinckley Institute of Politics.
While Jowers said he never actually plays the markets, he does keep an eye on them, sometimes sharing a candidate's ups and downs in trading as part of his classroom discussion on presidential politics.
Some Web sites, like www.newsfutures.com, use only "play money" so traders can't actually win or lose cash. But the University of Iowa and Intrade, a for-profit Web site based in Ireland, do require a financial investment to participate.
Presidential politics is just one category of trading at Intrade, which takes bets on just about anything, including the chances of Osama bin Laden being "captured or neutralized" or if CBS Evening News anchor Katie Couric will be gone by the end of the year.
University of Iowa finance professor Tom Rietz said in a recent telephone interview that the Iowa university's market was created for educational purposes — not to make money like the sometimes controversial Intrade.
"We're not profiting from this enterprise," Rietz said. "There's no bookies or anything like that."
He said what's been learned by studying the Iowa university's political futures market since its creation in 1988 is that the market has been more accurate than polling in predicting who would win the White House.
Rietz said when compared to nearly 1,000 polls, the market was closer to the election outcome 74 percent of the time. Market players have a vested interest in predicting how the electorate will vote, he said, while pollsters capture the public's views at a given moment.
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