Blood is bad between Demo camps
A mother of seven, a grandmother of 15, Woods says she's a loyal Democrat and a supporter of New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton.
But if Illinois Sen. Barack Obama wins the party's nomination, Woods said she may sit out November's general election.
"Only one time I didn't vote," said Woods, who wouldn't reveal her age. "I was busy having a baby."
Woods is leaving room to change her mind. Still, she represents a conundrum Democrats must face — the possibility of alienating one of the party's two key bases of support: black voters, who have rallied behind the front-runner Obama, or white women, who polls show have thrown their support solidly behind Clinton.
Anger one or the other enough, say pollsters, academics and election experts, and you could risk lowering Democratic vote totals enough in November to make Arizona Sen. John McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee, the 44th president.
"There is a definite sense of entitlement in both camps that they've earned it and it's theirs," said Vincent Hutchings, an associate professor at the University of Michigan's Center for Political Studies. "There's a lot of bad blood between these camps."
• Obama's lead over Clinton among blacks nationally was nearly 5-1 in Gallup poll surveys taken over the first two weeks of March.
• Clinton's lead among white women who are Democrats or lean Democratic, while not as big at 58 percent to 33 percent, was nonetheless impressive, considering the enormity of that voting bloc nationally.
• On Friday, two new polls — one from the Gallup, one from Rasmussen — showed Clinton and Obama in a statistical dead heat among Democratic voters nationwide. Until this week, Obama had led.
• Though more than 70 percent of blacks identify themselves as Democrats, black support for Clinton in a general election against McCain slipped to 61 percent — with many suggesting they'd vote for a third party or stay home, pollster Scott Rasmussen of Rasmussen Reports said Friday.
• In head-to-head matchups with McCain, Rasmussen's latest survey shows both Democrats having a problem with white women, including independents and Republicans. While Clinton gets 41 percent to McCain's 51 percent among white women, Obama gets just 38 percent in the latest polling.
Campaign trail developments — such as the controversy over remarks made by Obama's former pastor and Obama's response; the failed call by Clinton supporters for a Michigan do-over primary, and questions about Clinton's support for NAFTA, for instance — all have an effect, as will results from upcoming primaries in Pennsylvania, North Carolina and elsewhere.
Voters who say they will stay home — or vote for someone else — could change their minds.
Despite the caveats, Rasmussen said there is an undercurrent of anger.
"It's not the poll numbers. ... It's the way the Democratic nomination is resolved," he said. "There needs to be a clear ending that strikes rank-and-file Democrats as fair."
Clinton's supporters are frustrated because they think the New York senator is more electable — a belief further fueled by the remarks made by Obama's pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright — and that Clinton has been treated unfairly by the media.
In late February, a "Saturday Night Live" skit about reporters fawning over Obama made that point and possibly boosted Clinton's campaign.
Diane Bystrom, director of the Carrie Chapman Catt Center for Women and Politics at Iowa State University, said it's not Obama, per se, fueling the frustration of some women, it's the nagging sensation that a woman is being passed over for a man - of any race.
"It's about women ... having an experience in their lives where they've been treated unfairly," she said.
Clinton supporters can point to her wins in big states — such California, Texas and Ohio. If she wins big in Pennsylvania and a few others, she might claim the popular vote lead.
But Obama's current lead in popular vote, delegates and number of states won - and the fact that it would be almost impossible for Clinton to catch him — fuels strong feelings among his supporters that he has earned the nomination, particularly after suggestions from the Clinton camp that he could be her vice president.
If the situation were reversed, asked state Sen. Tupac Hunter, a Detroit Democrat co-chairing Obama's Michigan campaign, "do you think we'd be having this conversation?"
Bystrom said she believes women could bolt to McCain if they feel disaffected but that blacks will still vote en masse for the Democratic nominee, whoever it is.
Not so fast, said Hunter.
Don't take black voters for granted, he said, or "they're not going to be there."
So the question facing the party is how to make everyone happy — or at least united.
It could be a tall order.
Clinton has no chance to catch Obama in delegates based on the remaining primaries; nor can he win the nomination outright.
That is likely to leave the final decision in the hands of the super delegates — party officials and elected leaders beholden to no candidate — before or during the August nominating convention in Denver.
If it takes that long and a floor fight breaks out at the convention, there could be even more hurt feelings.
As usual, said Ronald Walters, director of the African American Leadership Center at the University of Maryland, it will come down to politics. Expect super delegates who haven't committed to a candidate to wait and see who has the momentum at the end, he said.
"It's going to change as they come to the end of this thing and they see which way the wind is blowing," he said.
The next question is whether the loser steps aside gracefully.
Some supporters will be angry; some — who knows how many or what effect they could have — may vote for McCain or stay home in November.
Said Waters, it comes down to this: "Whom do I want to make maddest?"
Recent comments
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