Further reduction in troops likely in Iraq by year's end
That was not the widespread view only three months ago when Bush announced there would be a temporary halt to troop reductions once the last of five "surge" brigades left Iraq this month. Many believed the country would remain too fragile to justify thinning American combat lines before 2009.
However, two weeks of observing U.S. and Iraqi troops in and around Baghdad, coupled with Associated Press interviews with commanders and planners, suggest a likelihood that Bush will move to reduce the U.S. force by perhaps another combat brigade, or roughly 3,000-4,000 soldiers, toward the end of the year. More cuts seem possible next year, but the scale and timing will depend on who replaces Bush in the White House.
It now looks as though Bush has more reasons to resume the drawdown than to leave the entire decision to his successor. Not all the reasons are good news: The situation has deteriorated in Afghanistan, and commanders there say they need a substantial infusion of combat power and military trainers to curb the insurgency.
U.S. domestic political pressures to get out of Iraq are building, too. Democratic presidential contender Barack Obama, who met with al-Maliki in Baghdad on Monday, says he would get all combat forces out within 16 months of taking office. Republican John McCain is opposed to setting any timeline for withdrawals and says troops will come home as security improves. That's what the White House says, too.
Extra reductions this year might be made by simply canceling plans to replace a combat brigade that is finishing its 15-month tour in Iraq this fall. The departing brigade's operating area most likely would be assumed by a unit nearby, spreading it thinner as has been done in numerous instances over the past year.
Fresh reductions this fall would entail some risk of losing momentum toward a stable Iraq.
The Iraqi army, though increasingly competent, is still weak in some areas, and the Iraqi police are a much bigger question mark. Shrinking the U.S. force further would go against the ingrained inclination of its commanders, who tend to be cautious, in part out of fear of sacrificing gains achieved at the cost of many American lives.
Despite talk from al-Maliki of ending the dominant U.S. role in his country, interviews with a number of his generals suggest that they are in no rush to see the Americans leave.
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