Did Jenny Wilson "lose" or did Ralph Becker "win" the primary?
Pignanelli: The "Wilson Curse" strikes again. Ted Wilson and his daughter are great underdog candidates who come from behind to defeat incumbents (Ted in his first mayoral race in 1975, Jenny against Steve Harmsen for the Salt Lake County Council in 2004).
However, father and daughter are cursed to lose when polls deem them frontrunners. (In the 1988 gubernatorial contest, Ted was ahead until the very end.). There are lots of theories on the streets, but the bottom line is Wilson's neighborhood effort was weak and her cautious campaign did not capture the undecided vote.
Normally, Wilson's lead could carry her through Election Day. However, Ralph Becker led a near perfect campaign. His opponents admit Becker mounted a tremendous door-to-door in neighborhood strategy while scoring points in debates. After release of the midsummer polls, Becker analyzed that most undecideds were left of center. While Wilson dithered in the middle, Becker focused his efforts on liberal activists who vote. Yet, while he curried favor with leftists, Becker maintained respect among moderates and many Republicans.
Becker dominated cyberspace and the blogger community. Politicos disparaged his "Blueprint Man" video, which was spread throughout the Internet. Thus, while many attacked this silly commercial, it achieved the objective of prompting numerous conversations regarding Becker's experience in urban planning and environmental causes. Thus, Wilson's slip and fall allowed Becker to step over her.
Webb: It's not fair to say there's some Wilson gene that caused father and daughter to lose frontrunner races. The 1988 and 2007 races were vastly different in scope and dynamics with little to compare.
I think Wilson ran a good, competitive race and didn't coast or take things for granted. She hustled to the end, as was evident in her quick and aggressive response to the motherhood issue. It's harder than it looks to maintain frontrunner status throughout a campaign. Ask John McCain.
The simple reality is that Becker ran a better race that peaked at the right time. He was far more experienced with campaigns in the city and understood the necessity of obsessive neighborhood campaigning and targeting people who will actually vote.
Ultimately, Becker won because he emerged as more experienced and substantive. Becker isn't the most exciting politician in the world, but he is acceptable to a wide swath of the political spectrum.
Keith Christensen had the most money, best resume and universal respect; why did he garner less than 10 percent in the primary?
Pignanelli: You can take the man out of the Republican Party, but you can't take the Republican Party out of the man. Anyone who encounters Christensen is impressed with his intelligence, experience and savvy. Unfortunately, he ran a GOP campaign in a Democratic city: The focus was on fund raising and not door-to-door personal contact. Money is secondary in a primary election where turnout is dominated by activists. This was an unfortunate situation. A stronger presence by Christensen could have driven better discussions regarding economic development.
Webb: Low-turnout municipal primaries absolutely demand full-time shoe leather in neighborhoods. Becker, Dave Buhler and Wilson all are incumbent office-holders with built-in constituencies and support groups. Christensen had to start from scratch and couldn't catch up.
What can we expect from Dave Buhler and Becker in the next seven weeks?
Pignanelli: Becker has a great retail politics campaign, but Buhler possesses the best media. Love Communications (led by Tom Love) developed brilliant and creative commercials to highlight Buhler's open personality. Indeed, Buhler's campaign has attracted national attention, and Love is now recognized as a PR force in Intermountain political campaigns. The general election is a long shot for Buhler, but I expect a flurry of creative advertisements and mailers from Love to attract Democrats. Becker will continue to motivate the city's predominant special interests, while reaching out to political moderates.
Webb: Becker is clearly the favorite. But he would make an enormous mistake to take a win for granted. That frontrunner position is dangerous, especially if supporters think a win is certain.
Buhler needs to run a near-perfect race, but that's not impossible. He must get every conservative and moderate voter to the polls. As a likable moderate Republican, Buhler is acceptable to a lot of moderate Democrats.
Both candidates must focus on city issues and leadership and get their messages to voters. Buhler needs to draw a contrast, give people a reason to vote for him, without being mean or negative. Most people like Becker, but his weakness is his wonkishness. Will the city suffer from timidity and paralysis by analysis? A mayor must take chances and make tough decisions.
• Without doubt, Gov. Calvin L. Rampton was one of Utah's greatest political figures in the 20th century. More importantly, he was just a great guy. Republicans and Democrats alike mourn his passing.
Republican LaVarr Webb was policy deputy to Gov. Mike Leavitt and Deseret News managing editor. He now is a political consultant and lobbyist. E-mail: lwebb@exoro.com. Democrat Frank Pignanelli is Salt Lake attorney, lobbyist and political adviser. A former candidate for Salt Lake mayor, he served 10 years in the Utah House of Representatives, six years as House minority leader. Pignanelli's spouse, D'Arcy Dixon Pignanelli, is a Utah state tax commissioner. E-mail: frankp@xmission.com.