Heated race in 2nd District — again

By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb
Published: Saturday, June 5, 2004 9:03 p.m. MDT
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Webb: Amazing how it's deja vu all over again in the 2nd Congressional District. Just like in 2002, Tim Bridgewater staged a minor upset in the state convention, winning more votes than the better-known John Swallow. Like 2002, the two are now locked in a bitter primary fight. Like 2002, the primary will likely be very close. Like 2002, the winner will emerge short of money and facing an uphill battle to unseat Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson.

Matheson is a fine campaigner with a large war chest and much stronger relationships in the rural parts of his district than in 2002. Matheson is moderate enough that he doesn't get hard-core Democrats very excited, and if he was alone on the ballot some liberal Democrats might stay home. But this year they'll be out to vote against President Bush (a visceral hatred there), so Matheson shouldn't have trouble getting his Democratic base.

His position on gay marriage might anger his liberal constituency, but Matheson absolutely has to attract a lot of Republican votes to win. The ideological purists on both the left and right may be smug in their views, but they'd rather form circular firing squads than win general elections.

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To have a chance against Matheson, Republican leaders need to order Swallow and Bridgewater to keep the primary positive if either of them expect to have a future in Utah politics. The party can't afford to have damaged goods emerge from the primary with a sharply-divided Republican base.

The GOP nominee will have some significant advantages: President Bush and Sen. Bob Bennett leading the ballot and a strong candidate for governor. Still, the 2nd District nominee has to bring home those wayward Salt Lake County east bench Republicans, who are perfectly happy to vote for a Democrat if it strikes their fancy.

The stakes are high in this race and a lot of national money will flow into Utah on both sides.

To win, the Republican has to nationalize the race, make it a referendum on Bush, a show of support for the president. Bush needs a Republican Congress to support his programs. Jim Matheson is a nice guy, but a vote for him is a vote for Nancy Pelosi and a handcuffed Bush administration. Pound that message home.

There are limits on the effectiveness of that strategy. The quality of the candidates is still more important than the race's national implications. But helping voters view the election as an opportunity to support the president and maintain control of the U.S. House can be good for a few points, enough to win the election.

Pignanelli: Regardless of what happens in the GOP primary, Republicans owe John Swallow hearty thanks for an astute political maneuver in 2003 that is causing problems for Democrats in 2004. Last November, Swallow distributed a press release proclaiming his support of a Constitutional amendment to define marriage between a man and a woman. He signed a pledge in support of the change and urged Jim Matheson to demonstrate the same commitment.

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