Y. professor warned of temblor in 1997
But Indonesia failed to heed him; Utah isn't listening either, he says
Research by Harris indicated an earthquake with a magnitude of at least 8.0 was due in the ocean west of Sumatra and would cause a devastating tsunami. He published the research in an Indonesian journal and pleaded with the government there to prepare, but little was done.
"It might not have made any difference," Harris said of the advice he gave, "but 100,000 people is a lot of people, and I feel connected to it in a way that's hard to explain."
He's also living close to another potential tragedy, the magnitude 7.0 earthquake he and other researchers at BYU and the University of Utah expect could strike at any time along the Wasatch Front.
Harris fears Utah suffers from a lack of preparation similar to Indonesia's.
"We've been talking about the earthquake hazards here for a long time and most people still have their heads in the sand," he said.
The renovations to the Utah State Capitol and the Salt Lake Tabernacle are welcome signs, he said, but hundreds of thousands of Utahns are at risk living and working in buildings that aren't reinforced while strain builds along the Wasatch fault, according to work originated by Bob Smith at the U.
"We know it's not dead," Harris said of the fault. "We know it's still alive. Eventually, whatever's holding it together will snap."
A very different kind of fault caused the Indian Ocean tsunami.
Instead of it pulling apart, Harris and his former student at West Virginia University, Carlos Prasetyadi, measured the rates that tectonic plates were colliding beneath the ocean floor off Sumatra.
The area, known as the Sunda subduction (or collision) zone, is known for major earthquakes that occur when the energy built up by the plates pressing against each other is finally released.
The longer the plates are stuck and energy accumulates from opposite directions, the larger the earthquake will be.
"The entire 1,600-kilometer length of the Sumatra fault system has not slipped significantly for 130-150 years," Harris wrote in an updated version of his report for a BYU publication in 2002. "Since this time, seven to eight meters of potential slip have accumulated and will most likely be released suddenly to produce a magnitude 8.0-plus event."
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