Utahns fleeing state? Not so fast
Analysts take issue with census report on out-migration
Utah lost an average 4.1 people per 1,000 population each year from 2000 to 2004, according to the report, "Domestic Net Migration in the United States: 2000 to 2004," released Thursday by the U.S. Census Bureau.
The census report's general trend holds true, but both state and federal estimates are likely missing some of Utah's population, said Pam Perlich, senior research economist at the University of Utah.
"Here in Utah we are part of that whole dynamic West; we're gaining in-migration from international sources," she said. "We export people to the South."
The Census Bureau considers domestic migration to be the movement of people within the United States. The Census Bureau has estimated that Utah has an average net gain of 10,000 people per year due to immigration.
The report showed people are moving from the Northeast, the Midwest and the Pacific coast to the Mountain West and the South. Nevada, Arizona and Florida had the highest rates of in-migration. New York, Massachusetts and North Dakota had the highest rates of out-migration.
Looking at state and federal data, Perlich said census data shows Utah lost 33,822 people to domestic migration from 2000 to 2005. But when including in-migration, the state gained a total 16,173.
State population estimates, in contrast, show more than 18,000 people moving to Utah each year since 2000, with a spike of 41,000 in 2005.
"It seems inconsistent for a state like Utah, with the fourth-fastest growth in economy in the nation, to yet have some of the most out-migration," said Robert Spendlove, manager of demographic and economic analysis for the Governor's Office of Planning and Budget.
State demographers have long said the Census Bureau, which largely bases its migration estimates on tax return data, is missing a big piece of the picture. The Utah Population Estimates Committee uses a variety of sources such as tax returns, school enrollment, LDS Church records and utility hook-ups.
Even Washington County, which has grown by 30 percent since 2000 according to census estimates, didn't make the list of 25 counties with the greatest annual rates of in-migration.
Spendlove said Utah's "very robust economic growth" is very likely an indication that more people are moving to Utah than census numbers indicate since people tend to follow jobs.
The state added more than 9,100 construction jobs and 11,400 professional business jobs from March 2005 to 2006, according to a Department of Workforce Services report released this week.
"That's one of the best things about Utah's current growth cycle, it's really being filled in all areas," he said. "Every major employment sector in the state is growing right now."
E-mail: dbulkeley@desnews.com
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