State considers challenge if U.S. Census figures low
And, if that estimate turns out significantly higher than the Census Bureau's, the state is eyeing the potential of becoming the first state ever to challenge the census estimates.
Utah has long considered the census estimates to be lower than reality, in large part because the census is missing immigration to the state, said Robert Spendlove, manager of demographic and economic analysis for the Governor's Office of Planning and Budget.
"It's a way to force a discussion of the Census Bureau's methods," Spendlove said. "It goes to the heart of the way the Census Bureau produces its estimates. It's always important to have the most accurate population numbers that can be produced."
Utah's population estimates released Tuesday show Utah's 2006 population at 2,615,129 — an estimated growth of 2.7 percent, 67,740 people, since 2005.
The Census Bureau is expected to release its 2006 state-level population estimates next month. For 2005, the census estimate was off from the state estimate by 75,000, Spendlove said. Nine cities successfully challenged their 2005 census estimates, and 12 cities and Utah County successfully challenged in 2004.
While he didn't say exactly how big a gap between the estimates would have to be before the state challenges, Spendlove said the costs of bringing a case to the Census Bureau would be weighed against the benefits.
While it would be different than the state's failed challenge to the 2000 Census, when the state missed a fourth congressional seat by a mere 857 people, any successful state challenge to the estimates would be considered official, unlike past successful city and county challenges.
A successful challenge could bring in more federal funding tied directly, or indirectly, to the census estimates, Spendlove said.
Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr., who is pushing for Utah to add a fourth congressional seat quickly, would make the decision about such a challenge.
However, Huntsman spokesman Mike Mower said the office views the potential challenge and the fourth seat as "two separate, but very important, issues."
"We recognize a need to spend some resources to pursue this issue," he said of the challenge. "We stand to gain a good deal if our challenge is successful."
Spendlove said the state and census both rely on decennial census counts, along with births and deaths. However, while Utah measures migration by also considering school enrollment, membership in The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, IRS records and housing, the census only uses changes in federal tax data.
You can be the first to comment on this story.